Sea levels may be higher than we thought, putting millions more homes at risk of being plunged underwater, a new study warns. But here's where it gets controversial...
A recent study has revealed that sea levels could be up to 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) higher than previously estimated, significantly increasing the number of people at risk from rising oceans. This finding highlights a critical oversight in previous studies, which relied on a rough estimate of the global sea level, far lower than the true water line in many places.
The new research, published in the journal Nature, analyzed 385 pieces of peer-reviewed scientific literature from 2009 to 2025. It found that 90% of these studies relied on assumptions that don't account for local factors affecting the real sea level. And this is the part most people miss...
These assumptions, known as 'geoid models', are mathematical predictions based on the Earth's gravity and rotation. However, they don't consider factors like winds, ocean currents, and seawater temperature and salinity, which can significantly influence sea levels. As a result, previous studies have underestimated the sea level by at least 9.4 inches (24 cm), with some discrepancies reaching 25 feet (7.7 meters).
This means that the sea level is already much higher than most scientists believe, making the risk of rising sea levels far more significant. So, what does this mean for the future?
If sea levels rise by the amount estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it will be from a much higher starting point than previously thought. This means millions more homes will be at risk of flooding. Dr. Matt Palmer, Science Fellow at the Met Office Hadley Centre, emphasizes that the impacts of sea-level rise under climate change have been systematically underestimated, particularly in the Global South.
The Global South, especially Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, faces greater risks due to the largest discrepancies between the geoid model and reality. In some areas, satellite measurements show that the real sea level is already about 4.9 feet (1.5 meters) higher than assumed by most risk assessments. And this is where it gets controversial...
Dr. Philip Minderhoud, co-author of the study, notes that these discrepancies were first observed in Vietnam's Mekong Delta. He says, 'Here it was assumed in international impact assessments that the land would start to become inundated if sea level were to rise by 1.5 to 2 meters. But I could see that the surface water level, which stood in direct connection with the sea level, was already in many places within several decimetres [0.1 of a meter] of the land surface.'
In Southeast Asia, the researchers estimate that 96% more people could be affected by a 3.2-foot (one-meter) sea level increase than previously estimated. This highlights the urgent need for more accurate sea-level predictions and better coastal protection measures.
So, what do you think? Do you agree with the findings of this study? Or do you think there are other factors at play? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
