The electric vehicle market is facing a harsh reality check, and Nio’s CEO, William Li, isn’t sugarcoating it: November will be tough, and December? Well, that’s anyone’s guess. But here’s where it gets controversial—while the industry reels from a sudden demand slump triggered by subsidy cuts, Li hints that some competitors are still in denial, clinging to the hope of a year-end sales surge that may never come. Could this be a case of wishful thinking, or are they missing something everyone else sees? Let’s dive in.
Nio, the Chinese EV maker, is gearing up to release its November delivery figures on December 1st, all while ramping up production of its star models: the Onvo L90 and the Nio ES8. In October, the company hit a record high, delivering 40,397 vehicles across its three brands—a first-ever milestone above the 40,000 mark. Yet, despite this achievement, the road ahead looks bumpy. Based on its Q4 guidance of 120,000–125,000 vehicles, Nio expects to deliver between 79,603 and 84,603 units in November and December combined. That’s a tall order, especially when earlier this year, Li predicted a 50,000-unit monthly rate for the final quarter.
And this is the part most people miss: The demand drop in October wasn’t just a dip—it was a freefall. Li revealed that new-order volumes plummeted across most manufacturers, catching the industry completely off guard. ‘Before mid-October, no one saw this coming,’ he said. ‘By late October, many still hoped for a rebound, but November forced us to face reality.’ The question now is: How will companies adapt to this new normal?
One of the biggest shocks? The subsidy cuts. Customers were expected to rush purchases to save RMB 15,000 ($2,100) before the subsidies shrink in January 2026. But the actual impact was far worse than anticipated. ‘The pull-forward demand we expected didn’t materialize,’ Li explained. This raises a thought-provoking question: Did the industry overestimate consumer urgency, or is there something deeper at play?
Despite the turmoil, Nio is sticking to its price stability strategy. ‘We’re not making disorderly changes,’ Li assured. But here’s the kicker: While supply issues are temporary, the real challenge is demand. Nio’s backlog, particularly for models like the ES8, offers some buffer, but even that has its limits. As of Friday, the ES8 has a 22–23 week waiting period, with orders placed today expected to deliver in late April 2026. Nio is pushing hard to maximize deliveries before year-end, as each unit delivered this year earns an extra RMB 15,000 due to the looming subsidy cuts.
Here’s where it gets even more intriguing: During the same media Q&A, Li expressed interest in integrating robotics with Nio’s battery swapping technology. Could this be the next big leap for the company, or is it a distraction from the current demand crisis? Let’s discuss in the comments—do you think Nio’s focus on robotics is a smart move, or should they double down on their core EV business?
As the industry navigates this uncertain terrain, one thing is clear: The next few months will be a defining moment for EV makers. Will Nio’s strategy pay off, or will the demand slump prove too much to handle? Only time will tell. What’s your take? Are you bullish on Nio’s future, or do you see more challenges ahead? Share your thoughts below!
